Lithium big data noted that data from business companies showed that on June 30, the market price of cobalt content in Guangdong cobalt market was ≥99.8%, which was 391,000 yuan/ton, and the market price of cobalt in Shanghai cobalt market was ≥99.8%, which was 396,000. Yuan/ton, the market price of cobalt content of the Yangtze River cobalt market ≥99.8% is above 400,000 yuan / ton, reaching 414,000 yuan / ton.
In fact, the price of cobalt has risen since the beginning of June. Up to now, it has risen by more than 9%. Since the start of the current round of the upward cycle in November 2016, the price of cobalt has increased by more than 80%.
"From the statistics in 2011, the current price of cobalt has reached a new high." Ye Jianjun, a small metal analyst at the business office, said that the highest price of cobalt was sold at 800,000 yuan/ton, but it began to fall after 2008. . From February to October 2016, the price of cobalt has been entrenched in the price range of about 210,000 yuan / ton, but since November the price has been rising all the way to the high level of 390,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of April this year.
Ye Jianjun said that after April, the price of cobalt metal had a short-term correction, but after entering June, the price of cobalt was once again “second springâ€, almost one price a day. At present, the domestic cobalt price has increased by more than 50% compared with the beginning of the year, which is more than 80% higher than that in November 2016.
“Currently, the domestic cobalt fundamentals are still tightly supplied. With the accelerated development of new energy vehicles, the policy support for high energy density batteries is increasing. The current mature solution is the ternary technology path, which supports the demand for cobalt. "Ye Jianjun said.
Earlier, some analysts said that it was difficult for large-scale mines to be put into production in the cobalt industry before 2019. The data also shows that global cobalt supply is expected to be 108,504 tons in 2017, global cobalt consumption is 113,300 tons, and the gap is 4,820 tons.
Cobalt price picks up share price prophet
The trend of cobalt metal prices is closely related to the trend of the secondary market.
Since the rise of the price of cobalt in February this year, the relevant stocks have also hit a stage high since June. As of the close of July 3, Huayou Cobalt recorded a maximum increase of 56.49% from the lowest point of 39.53 yuan to the highest point of 61.86 yuan. In the same period, Hanrui Cobalt rose 49.08%; Luoyang Molybdenum rose 30.81%; GEM rose 30.36%.
Another reason for the rise in the stock price of listed companies is to benefit from the continued improvement in performance, and have handed over eye-catching transcripts.
Huayou Cobalt's 2017 quarterly report showed that the company's net profit for the period increased by 820.97% year-on-year. With the steady growth of cobalt product prices, it is expected that this year's semi-annual comparison with the same period last year will turn into a profit. GEM's net profit for the first quarter increased by 53.94%, and net profit for the first half of the year is expected to increase by 20% to 60%.
Luoyang Molybdenum's operating income and net profit in the first quarter rose 399.64% and 323.28% respectively. The company said that due to the completion of the completion of two major overseas M&A projects in Brazil in the fourth quarter of 2016, the financial statements after the project was merged, and the copper and cobalt prices rebounded at the beginning of 2017. And a sharp rise, it is expected that the company's accumulated net profit will continue to increase significantly by the end of the next reporting period.
Demand for insufficient supply has increased
In terms of trends, PwC's recently released annual global mining trend report can bring some inspiration to the cobalt price outlook.
PricewaterhouseCoopers' Global Mining Trends Report this year is titled “2017 Mining: Stagnation, Thinking, and Actionâ€. The report mentions that “with the improved balance sheet and profit recovery in 2016, the world's top 40 mining companies have turned around from the downturn and have much-needed space to correct and breathe.â€
The most striking statistic is the 2016 profit margin. The top 40 mining companies in 2016 had a total profit of $20 billion, compared to a total loss of $28 billion in 2015. Rising commodity prices have caused the profits of related companies to rise, leading to a 45% increase in market capitalization to $71.4 billion – close to the 2014 level.
But in stark contrast, the proportion of the top 40 mining companies' investment fell by 41% to $50 billion, a record low. The main reason is that the increased income is used to pay off debts. Large mining companies have not invested in exploration for profit. For four consecutive years, the industry has reduced exploration costs. In 2016, it invested $7.2 billion, which is only one-third of the 2012 investment record of $21.5 billion.
PricewaterhouseCoopers believes that with the rise of electric vehicles in the world, the demand for high-capacity power batteries and the popularity of handheld devices, the demand for cobalt continues to rise.
Insufficient supply and increased demand are the information that PwC brings.
In addition, with the recent rise in cobalt prices, traders and downstream companies are buying or not buying up or causing traders to reluctantly sell and replenishing the downstream production enterprises. As the current supply and demand are in a weak balance, reluctance to sell and replenish stocks. It also broke the weak balance pattern and drove up the price of cobalt.
According to the big data of lithium battery , there are two possibilities for the price of cobalt to rise to 400,000 yuan / ton to create a new high: the first is a large number of purchases from enterprises; the second is that the market is expected to rapidly increase the price of this product. Regardless of the possibility, as long as it can break through the historical high point, it means that the purchasing power is strong. With this purchasing power, the price will continue to rise.
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