On May 12th, Shanghai GM announced on its official website that the national retail retail price of 40 models of the 11 main products of the Buick, Chevrolet and Cadillac brands will be fully adjusted. The Chevrolet Capaci price will be reduced to 53,900 yuan. . The decline in the official guidance price of such a large-scale model is not the same as the promotion of price reduction activities led by Shanghai Volkswagen in April.
In the view of well-known car commentator Zhang Zhiyong, the decline in the official guidance price is more powerful and market-killing than the previous promotion price reduction activities. A car market price war caused by the official price cuts of enterprises is being staged.
It is worth noting that the Shanghai Auto Show just past and the four major auto companies that have been led by Shanghai Volkswagen have failed to reverse the slowdown in the auto market. According to the latest statistics released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as the China Automobile Association), in April this year, the production and sales of automobiles in the Chinese market were 2.079 million and 1,994,500 respectively, down 8.9% and 11% respectively. See, car production increased by 0.6%, sales fell by 0.5%.
In fact, Shanghai GM, which did not participate in the promotion price war in April, also paid a price. The sales volume in the month fell by 6.7% year-on-year. This is also the second month after Shanghai’s sales in January. The general adjustment of the official guidance price of Shanghai GM can be described as the first fire of Shanghai GM's new deputy general manager Shi Hongzhuo. If this is not the case, the sales trend will be reversed. I believe he will have further actions.
Under the spur of the continued poor sales in the automotive market and the “official drop†of Shanghai GM, will this price war eventually evolve into two large-scale car price cuts in 2004 and 2007? Peng Bo, global partner of Greater China and vice president of Greater China, told the Securities Daily that although FAW-Volkswagen and Shanghai-GM are all cutting prices, car manufacturers are not blindly cutting prices. The Chinese auto market will not remain depressed, and sales in the entire auto market will pick up in July and August.
However, Zhang Zhiyong is still bearish on the market, and the growth rate of sales in the sedan market continues to decline, and it will last for several months.
At the same time, under the pressure of the extraordinary joint venture car companies to reduce the price, what kind of pressure is the Chinese car brand facing? How should Chinese auto brands achieve "self-rise"? Wei Jianjun, chairman of Great Wall Motor (601633, Consulting), admitted that the pressure of his own brand is very large, and he said that he will not cut the price unless he has to.
Li Chunrong, general manager of Dongfeng Fengshen, said that the Chinese auto brand is still in a strategic defense stage and has no strength to collide with the joint venture. The data shows that the price of Chinese brand cars is generally low, and the price of hot-selling models of foreign brands has reached 2 times to 3 times that of the hot-selling Chinese brands of the same level. In the face of the surging tide of price cuts in joint ventures, is there still courage and enthusiasm for Chinese auto brands to take off their “underwear†competition?
In the beginning of April this year, the four major joint venture car companies: Shanghai Volkswagen, Changan Ford, Beijing Hyundai and FAW-Volkswagen led the "starring" price-cutting promotion drama, which triggered widespread concern in the industry. However, one month passed. However, the vigorous promotion of manufacturers has not been able to hold the continued decline in sales in the automotive market.
According to the latest statistics released by the China Automobile Association, in April this year, the production and sales of automobiles in the Chinese market were 2.079 million and 1,994,500 respectively, down 8.9% and 11% respectively. From the same period of last year, automobile production increased by 0.6%. Sales fell by 0.5%.
Contrary to the continued slowdown in car production and sales growth, car inventories rose sharply. The data shows that in early April, the vehicle inventory was 1,127,400, and the inventory at the end of April was 1,304,400, an increase of 7.1%. Among them, passenger car inventory in April increased by 8.7%.
It seems that the price reduction ace of the car companies has not been substantially helpful. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association (referred to as the China Federation of Trade Unions), admitted in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that "whether it is the price reduction of Shanghai Volkswagen or other companies' follow-up promotion measures, it will affect The competitive relationship between car companies. For example, Shanghai Volkswagen's sales in April are still acceptable, which seems to be the result of 'official drop'. But in fact, the effect of price reduction promotion is not ideal, and everyone has not achieved the expected increase. At the same time, Cui Dongshu also stressed that the impact of weaker economic markets on the automobile sales market has gradually increased.
It is also in this context, on May 12, Shanghai GM announced on the official website that the 40 models of its three major brands have all cut prices and officially followed the price war.
According to public information, in the first quarter of this year, sales of Shanghai GM fell 1% year-on-year, much lower than the growth rate of the passenger vehicle industry by 11%. In April this year, Shanghai General Motors sold 119,000 units, down 6.7% year-on-year. This is also the second consecutive month of Shanghai General Motors sales decline after January this year.
The sharp decline in sales of Shanghai General Motors actually reflects a new growth pressure faced by the joint venture after its rapid growth. Cui Dongshu said that on the other hand, the bull market in the capital market has attracted a large amount of funds, resulting in a significant reduction in consumer demand for car purchases, which has invisibly affected the retail market of car companies. Due to the hot stock market this year, the original plan to buy a car has been to stocks, so the mainstream car companies are facing pressure on sales growth, this is not only the current confusion of Shanghai General Motors, FAW Volkswagen, Shanghai Volkswagen and other car companies are not real retail sales optimism.
Interestingly, Cai Bin, who was also a deputy general manager of Shanghai General Motors at the time, made it clear that Shanghai GM would not follow up on price cuts. On May 7, Shanghai General Motors announced the personnel adjustment, and immediately announced the price war on May 12. For Shanghai GM’s completely different attitude towards price cuts, Cui Dongshu believes that “in the alternation of Shanghai’s new and old leaders, the previous leadership did not exert any force on sales. Shanghai’s “official†behavior may be The new leadership leaves some upside for a smoother 'smooth transition'."
Whether the tide of price cuts will intensify begins with the price reduction war on April 6th, and it has been more than a month. Specifically, on April 6, Shanghai Volkswagen announced that it has lowered the official price of its two models, Polo and Touran, by 8,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan. At the same time, Tiguan, Passat, Lingdu and Langyi also offered different degrees of concessions, ranging from 5,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan; followed by Changan Ford, Beijing Hyundai, FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC Passenger Vehicle Company, Dongfeng Peugeot, etc. They have joined this battle.
This time, the attack was made by Shanghai GM, which did not intend to join the price war. On May 12, Shanghai General Motors released a heavy news on its official website: announced that it will be under the three brands of Buick, Chevrolet and Cadillac. The national market retail guide price for a total of 40 models in 11 main product series was fully adjusted. Among them, the lowest price cuts are also 10,000 yuan, the largest price cuts are as high as 53,900 yuan. According to Shanghai GM's own statement, this price cut is an important part of the "2020 strategy."
Well-known car commentator Zhang Zhiyong told reporters that although the price of the terminal in the market has declined, the adjustment of the official guidance price of Shanghai GM will be the beginning of the second wave of price cuts, because of the decline in official guidance prices and the so-called promotion. Activities will not be the same.
Obviously, the decline in official guidance prices will be more powerful and market-killing. Zhang Zhiyong said that the decline in the official guidance price has greatly reduced the sales pressure of dealers in the terminal market. In the past, dealers' promotions were often difficult to get compensation from production companies. The decline in the official guidance price has led to the official promotion of the market promotion activities that the dealers have been performing in the past, thus reducing the dealer's promotion costs.
At the same time, dealers can also implement more powerful promotional measures based on new lower prices, which is the greater effect of the official guidance price decline. In the actual market, the price of the car products that consumers can buy will be lower than the official price of Shanghai GM.
Throughout China's auto industry, there have been two large-scale price cuts in 2004 and 2007 respectively, and this time Shanghai General's “official drop†behavior can trigger a large-scale price cut in 2004 and 2007. In this regard, Peng Bo said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that from the current point of view, there are two main factors that determine the development trend of car companies. First, if the car manufacturers have more production capacity, manufacturers will cut prices as much as possible; Second, if the auto market sales volume continues to be sluggish, automakers will also take further price cuts.
In his view, although the current overall sales of most automakers are currently declining year-on-year, it does not mean that these manufacturers will blindly cut prices, and secondly, the stock market's fast bull market will sooner or later, by July and August this year, The stock market will be relatively stable, so the market for the auto market will also improve, and the situation of large-scale price wars will not happen.
Different from the aforementioned optimistic views of the industry, Zhang Zhiyong said that according to the law of the development of China's auto market, the growth rate of the auto market generally shows a pattern of two high and low in the middle. Therefore, the growth rate of sales in the sedan market continues to decline, which is inevitable and continuous. The time will be several months.
The growth environment of this market is the most important factor for auto companies to take price cuts. Shanghai GM just opened its head. There will be more auto companies participating in the price reduction action.
In the melee of the joint venture car companies joining the price war, the independent brand encounters how the autonomous car brand that is still in the climbing stage survives in this price war environment and becomes a concern of everyone.
In this regard, some insiders said that the price cuts of joint venture car companies have obviously brought pressure to their own brands. "The first thing that will suffer from conduction is definitely the independent brand."
Wei Jianjun, chairman of Great Wall Motors, admitted that the pressure of his own brand is very large, and acknowledged the gap with the joint venture brand. He said that Great Wall Motor sold a lot in the first quarter of this year, but the company cares more about how much money it earns, as the current Great Wall Motor We are not qualified to cut prices. "We will not choose to cut prices because we have no choice but to cut prices because it is unfair to the owners who have already purchased Great Wall Motors."
Peng Bo told the "Securities Daily" reporter that if the above-mentioned price cuts continue to develop, the pressure on self-owned brands is very large. Generally speaking, the price of independent brands is 15% to 20% lower than that of joint venture brands, and even lower. %. If the joint venture car company cuts the price by 10%, then the self-owned brand will also be 5% to 10%. For the self-owned brand, its gross profit margin is only 10% of the gross profit margin of most independent brands. Such price reduction is undoubtedly worse. However, if the self-owned brand does not lower the price, the sales volume will be affected and a vicious circle will be formed.
Li Chunrong, general manager of Dongfeng Fengshen, said that the rise of Chinese auto brands is divided into three stages: strategic defense phase, strategic stalemate phase, and strategic counterattack phase. "Our current situation is still in the first stage." In his view, Chinese auto brands have five characteristics: large quantities, low bicycle efficiency, low prices, obvious SUV trend, and blocked exports, making it difficult to enter developed countries. market.
There are four main reasons for this gap. First, the time gap established by Chinese auto brands is the gap in brand development history. Second, the technology gap refers to the core technologies of engines, assisted driving and gearboxes. Insufficient; third, lack of foresight, lack of product planning; Fourth, the psychological gap, that is, the first three gaps lead to a general lack of awareness of Chinese car brands.
Despite the gap, the market share of Chinese brand passenger cars has continued to rise steadily. According to the data, in April, Chinese brand passenger cars sold a total of 686,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, accounting for the total sales of passenger vehicles. 41.13%, the market share increased by 3.81 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. This is the sixth consecutive month that the Chinese brand passenger car market share has remained above 40% since November 2011.
In terms of sales volume, the substantial increase in SUV sales is a key factor driving passenger car sales. Data show that in April, car sales of 932,200 units, down 13.13%, down 9.63%; SUV sales of 461,600, down 2.64%, up 48.49%; MPV sales of 16700, down 16.22%, year-on-year The growth rate was 22.15%; the sales of cross-type passenger vehicles was 108,200, a decrease of 12.79% from the previous month and a decrease of 16.80% from the same period of last year. The market share of Chinese brand passenger cars still maintains steady growth, and it is mainly dependent on the continued fierceness of the SUV market.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Association, said that the independent brand has seized the development opportunities of SUV models in a timely manner, and although the joint venture brand has a sufficient layout in the traditional sedan market, its performance in the mid-to-low-end SUV model market is not satisfactory. Therefore, he believes that “the joint venture brand is weak and the independent brand is strong†is the current trend of the domestic auto industry.
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